Hwood Hopes For T-Day Weekend Bounty: Breaking Dawn Still #1, The Muppets #2, Hugo #3, Happy Feet #4, Arthur Xmas #5

THURSDAY PM/FRIDAY AM, 3RD UPDATE: My sources are giving me these estimates for North American movie openings and for the 5-day Thanksgiving holiday. “Things really bounced around Thursday with pics flying in both directions,” one studio exec emails me. “Won’t know how it affects the 5-day estimates until Friday when the kids pics should come roaring back.” Already it’s looking like some of the new family fare won’t speed out of the theatrical gate, leaving a clear path for Summit Entertainment’sholdover Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 to win the weekend derby. Hollywood will havehissy fitsif the North American box office slump keeps continuing. The good news is that critics are bestowing good reviews and audiences are giving great CinemaScores to today’s opening pics: Disney’s rebootedThe Muppets earned an ‘A’, and Sony Pictures’ Arthur Christmas an ‘A-’.But the big news Thursday wasthe$2.3M made by Martin Scorsese’s 3D film Hugo that’s playing on 2,000 less screens than all the competition. Paramount is gleefully estimating $14M for its first 5 days on just 1,277 screens and noting its 97% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. But I’m still going to wait until Friday night to draw any major conclusionsabout this weekend’s grosses. Meanwhile, The Weinstein Co is platforming its Oscar-buzzed My Week With Marilyn and expands from123 theaters and adds another 121 runs in 61 markets including Canada on Friday.It’s made $150K Wednesday and $162K Thursday for around $2M for the 5-day holiday.The Weinstein Co’s other Academy Awards-touted film The Artist debuts in 4 locations in NY and LAFriday. Full analysis later: 1. Twilight Saga’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 (Summit) Week2 [4,066 Theaters] Wednesday $12.5M, Thursday $7.6M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $55M, Estimated Cume $179M 2. The Muppets (Disney) NEW [3,440 Theaters] Wednesday $7.3M, Thursday $5.5M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $40M 3. Hugo 3D (Paramount) NEW [1,277 Theaters] Wednesday $1.6M, Thursday $2.3M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $14M 4. Happy Feet Two 3D (Warner Bros) Week2 [3,606 Theaters] Wednesday $3M, Thursday $2M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $17.5M, Estimated Cume $30.2M 5. Arthur Christmas 3D (Sony Pictures) NEW [3,376 Theaters] Wednesday $2.8M, Thursday $1.8M Estimated5-Day Holiday $16M 6. Jack & Jill (Sony) Week3 [3,438 Theaters] Wednesday $2.1M, Thursday $1.8M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $14M, Estimated Cume $47M 7. Immortals 3D (Relativity) Week 3 [3,120 Theaters] Wednesday $2.2M, Thursday $1.8M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $13M, Estimated Cume $59.8M 8. Puss In Boots 3D (DreamWorks Animation/Par) Week5 [3,005 Theaters] Wednesday $2M, Thursday $1.3M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $10M, Estimated Cume $127.8M 9. Tower Heist (Universal) Week4 [2,474 Theaters] Wednesday $1.4M, Thursday $1.5M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $9.8M, Estimated $58M 10. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight) Week2 [390 Theaters] Wednesday $1MK, Thursday $1.1M Estimated 5-Day Holiday $7.1M